The revolution only has just started, but I get a feeling that Firefox, the open source, much loved browser is going to be all but dead. And the guys to blame, ironically, are it's benefactors.
Google's much raved Chrome is coming out of beta, and doesn't have any 'bad' features apart from a few privacy clauses here and there, which shouldn't bother the majority of users. So there is nothing to 'hate' it so much, moreover it too is built on the same engine as Firefox, open source.
Mozilla gets majority of its revenue through an agreement with Google, which is the default search engine for Firefox. There have been various reports that Google is pushing to include Chrome as the default browsers through the OEMs, i.e. when the machine is built itself. Once Chrome gets a decent start and some share of the pie, it makes sense for Google to cut all ties with Mozilla - and eliminate a competitor. Given that, Yahoo(if it continues to survive) or some other company may be willing to support Mozilla, but is highly unlikely.
The problem with Firefox is that research has shown that people use Firefox not because they love Firefox, but because it works so well, hence they will have no regret into using any other good browser.... like Chrome.
Firefox has spread mostly through word of mouth and some pushing by Google through it's Google pack and also through Adsense(?) by including Google toolbar with it. Of late Chrome's download links have been placed on YouTube and in Orkut - an effort to make people use it.
Most people use IE because it is already included with Windows - so as mentioned above, if Chrome is the default browser, they may not switch to anything else - of course, I'm assuming Chrome will be as well maintained as other Google products, making them comfortable with Chrome.
So what will kill Firefox? One - the funding - all Google has to do is end the agreement and bulk of Mozilla's revenues are gone. Two - marketing - Google will encourage users to download Chrome by offering Adsense users to make a cut of the profit. Three - make Chrome the 'best of the browsers' - Chrome could eventually incorporate features to accept all addons compatible with Firefox - that will be the final straw. Once Chrome is similar to Firefox and Mozilla is left with no money, Firefox will be doomed.
And so what was once a four-way battle between IE, Firefox, Opera and Safari will have a new entrant with enormous firepower and warchest. Sure will be interesting.
I really don't see an avenue where Firefox can make a solid footing. Google is not stupid to keep a competitor in the running when it is calling the shots......
Friday, December 12, 2008
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)


4 comments:
Hmm.. interesting...
good analysis.
My 2 cents.
1. Wonder how Google can force the OEMs to include Chrome when the OS used is Microsoft one...
2. If firefox dies, i hope, atleast then the opensource community might realize the crushing power of Google and hence realize that Google is not there to promote opensource but to extract from it. Hence it is more evil than Microsoft.
There were articles regarding Google and OEM talks. And a new tidbit: I almost guessed rightly: Google pack offers Chrome, and Firefox is an optional download in it...
But Opera has survived so long on a faithful fan base... I guess Firefox will too for a while...
//
Sure will be interesting.
//
Agreed..! Good point..
Post a Comment